Breaking Down the Odds for the 2017 NBA Championship Contenders and Their Chances

As I look back at the 2017 NBA championship race, I can't help but draw parallels to that incredible PBA matchup between TNT and San Miguel. Just like how TNT's strong start gave them a 61-41 halftime lead before surviving San Miguel's frantic fourth quarter comeback to win 99-96, the NBA contenders that year all had their moments of dominance and vulnerability. What fascinates me most about championship analysis is how initial advantages can quickly evaporate under playoff pressure, yet some teams manage to hold on just like TNT did in that hotly-contested match.

The Golden State Warriors entered the season as overwhelming favorites, and honestly, I've never seen a more stacked roster in my two decades covering the league. With Kevin Durant joining the 73-win core, their championship probability sat at around 68% according to most analytical models. What many casual observers miss is how their regular season record of 67-15 actually undersold their dominance - they were essentially playing on cruise control for large stretches. I remember watching them dismantle opponents with that fluid ball movement and thinking they were playing a different sport altogether. Their offensive rating of 115.6 remains one of the most impressive statistical achievements I've ever recorded in my notebooks.

Meanwhile, the Cleveland Cavaliers presented the most compelling challenge, though I'll admit I had my doubts about their consistency. LeBron James was playing at what I'd describe as basketball nirvana - his basketball IQ seemed to transcend the game itself. Their regular season was somewhat uneven, finishing 51-31, but anyone who'd watched playoff LeBron knew better than to judge them by those numbers. Kyrie Irving's clutch gene was something special to witness live - I still get chills remembering his game-winner in Game 4 of the Finals the previous year. The Cavs' defensive metrics concerned me though - they ranked just 22nd in defensive efficiency during the regular season, and in my experience, that usually catches up with teams in the playoffs.

The San Antonio Spurs always fly under the radar, but having covered Gregg Popovich's system for years, I can tell you they were built for postseason success. Kawhi Leonard had developed into a legitimate MVP candidate, and their 61-21 record demonstrated remarkable consistency. What impressed me most was their defensive discipline - they held opponents to just 98.1 points per game, which in today's offensive-minded NBA is practically unheard of. I recall watching them execute their sets with surgical precision and thinking they were the only team that could potentially out-system the Warriors.

Then there were the dark horses - teams like the Boston Celtics and Houston Rockets that intrigued me throughout the season. The Celtics' acquisition of Al Horford gave them a new dimension, while Isaiah Thomas's fourth-quarter heroics made every game must-watch television. The Rockets under Mike D'Antoni's system were an analytics darling - their emphasis on three-pointers and layups was revolutionary at the time. James Harden's transformation into a point guard produced historic numbers - I tracked his assist percentage at around 44.3%, which was simply remarkable for someone who also averaged 29.1 points.

What struck me about that season was how the championship picture evolved. The Warriors' March slump where they went 7-10 had many pundits questioning their invincibility, but having studied championship teams throughout history, I recognized this as typical pre-playoff fatigue rather than structural flaws. The Cavaliers' defensive improvements in April suggested they were flipping the proverbial switch, something championship-experienced teams often do.

Looking back with the benefit of hindsight, the Warriors' path to the championship was both predictable and extraordinary. Their 16-1 playoff record remains the most dominant postseason run I've witnessed in modern NBA history. The Cavaliers, despite their talent, simply couldn't overcome the Warriors' firepower when it mattered most. That Spurs team might have presented an interesting challenge, but Kawhi Leonard's injury in the Western Conference Finals changed everything - another reminder of how health often determines championship fates more than we analysts like to admit.

The 2017 season taught me that while superteams can dominate statistically, the human elements - chemistry, health, and clutch performance - still determine championships. Just like in that PBA game where TNT's early dominance nearly evaporated under San Miguel's pressure, the Warriors learned that no lead is safe in basketball, whether it's in a single game or throughout an entire season. What separates champions from contenders isn't just talent, but the ability to withstand those frantic comebacks and prevail in hotly-contested matches.